Northern Virginia Real Estate Blog

According to the June 2008 Case-Shiller Home Price Index, home prices in 15 of the 20 largest U.S. real estate markets either improved, or showed growth from the month prior.

This is the fourth straight month in which that happened which means that a national housing recovery may already be underway.

Now, it’s worth stating that all real estate is local and that there’s no such thing as a “national real estate market”, but for home buyers looking to to maximize their negotiation power to get the best possible “deal”, spotting trends like this before the media does is a good thing.

So far, only Bloomberg and a few others have chosen to highlight the positives from the otherwise-negative Case-Shiller report.  By contrast, most publishers are focusing on annual home price figures which show a hefty drop of 15.9 percent.

We shouldn’t dismiss annual trends because they’re helpful in the theoretical sense, but for real, live home buyers trying to identify trends and market bottoms, it’s the month-to-month data that matters most.

After looking at 4 consecutive months of Case-Shiller data, the month-to-month data appears to show that home prices have stabilized in most major markets.  And, in some, they’ve already started to recover from their lows.

Source
U.S. House-Price Slide Eases, S&P/Case-Shiller Shows
Courtney Schlisserman
Bloomberg.com, August 26, 2008

When a homeowner buys a new home, he has 3 options of what to do with his current residence:

1. Sell the home, paying off the mortgage in full
2. Keep the home as a second/vacation home
3. Convert the home to an investment property

The most common action plan is the first one — sell the home and pay off the mortgage.  However, with home prices poised to rebound, some savvy homeowners are trying to avoid “selling low”.

Unfortunately — as of August 1, 2008 — waiting out the market won’t be so easy.

Burned by foreclosures and wary of risk, Fannie Mae issued new conforming mortgage guidelines that specifically apply to home buyers planning to convert an existing primary residence into a second home or investment property.

Among the highlights of Fannie Mae’s changes:

Selling the primary residence
If the new home being purchased closes prior to the existing home’s sale, both payments must be used to qualify the buyer for the new mortgage.

Converting to a second home
If the home has less than 30 percent equity in it, the home buyer must show 6 months of PITI reserves for both properties to qualify for the new mortgage.

Converting to an investment property
If the home has less than 30 percent equity, its rental income may not be used to help the buyer qualify for the new mortgage.

If it seems like mortgage rules are getting strict, that’s because they are.  And they’re expected to get tougher, too.  With each foreclosure and high-profile bank collapse, mortgage lenders tighten up their guidelines just a bit, freezing out the “fringe” borrower from access to mortgage money.

Mortgage rates may rise through 2009, or they may fall.  We don’t know.  But what we do know is that borrowing money to buy a home will be tougher.

If you plan to buy a home in the next 12 months, consider moving up your timeframe or — at least — planning ahead.  Understanding the mortgage rules and how they can change may be the difference between getting approved for a home loan, or getting turned down.

As compact fluorescent bulbs gain favor across the country, it’s important to remember that they contain mercury and mercury is harmful to humans.

Because even though CFLs contain small amounts of mercury — less than 4 milligrams per bulb — it’s still enough mercury to cause brain damage.

If you’re interested, this 4-minute video from the University of Calgary shows how mercury damages neurons in the brain.

But don’t let the presence of mercury stop you from using CFLs — they are much more positive than negative if you exercise good care.

The Environment Protection Agency provides some basic handling tips:

1. CFLs are made from glass.  Therefore, screw and unscrew the bulb using the base and not the bulb.
2. Never force a CFL into a light socket.
3. When the bulb burns out, take it to a specially-designated recycling center in your area.  Do not throw out a CFL with the “normal” trash.

In addition, the EPA drafted guidelines for dealing with broken bulbs within a household.  Among the recommendations: Don’t wash your mercury-covered clothing, and don’t vacuum up the poison.  This is somewhat counter-intuitive for most people.

The EPA’s review of CFL safety is 3 pages long and can be viewed on its Web site.

CFLs are more expensive than traditional bulbs but offer long-term savings in both energy and environment costs.  And, with common sense care, CFLs pose no household health risks.

Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) is an insurance policy paid to a lender in the event that a homeowner defaults on his home loan. 

With the growing number of mortgage defaults nationwide, mortgage insurers are finding their balance sheets under attack and their revenues in the red.

So far this year, mortgage insurers have paid out $6 billion in claims.

In response to the losses, the mortgage insurance industry is using two tactics to return to profitability — and both mean bad news for homeowners.

1. Raise the minimum standards to get insurance
2. Raise the annual mortgage insurance cost

This is very similar to what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are doing to shore up their respective balance sheets; lending to only the most credit worthy, and making sure to charge them for their commensurate risk.

Because of the higher PMI rates, it’s getting more expensive for small-downpayment home buyers to finance their homes.  And that’s if they can even still get mortgage insurance. 

Some mortgage insurers now require a 10 percent minimum downpayment in certain states.

So with the number of mortgage defaults expected to rise through 2009, qualifying for PMI should get more expensive and more difficult.  If you plan to make a small downpayment on your next home — or plan to remortgage your current low equity home — consider moving up your timeframe.

It may not be as cheap or as easy to get financing as it is today.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Housing Starts measure the number of new housing “units” on which construction has started and in July, Housing Starts fell to its lowest levels since March 1991.

For homeowners, this is a welcome bit of good news because as fewer homes are built, there is less inventory from which home buyers can choose.

With fewer homes for sale, the supply-and-demand curve shifts in favor of home sellers and this adds a support floor for home prices.

For home buyers, though — and for the opposite reason — the low number of Housing Starts may not be as welcome.

With fewer new homes on the market, owners of “used” homes may feel less pressure to lower their asking prices or to make other concessions to interested buyers.  This means that home buyers may pay more for a home, or get fewer “throw-ins” on the contract.

For all of the hocus-pocus that surrounds real estate data, in the end, home prices are based on the supply of homes versus the demand for homes.  When supply outpaces demand, home prices fall.

Homebuilders learned this lesson and July’s Housing Starts data supports that.

(Image Courtesy: Wall Street Journal Online)

Any plumber will tell you — toilets are among the least efficient appliances in a person’s home.  20 percent of them leak up to 200 gallons of water per day – the equivalent of an 80-minute shower.

At an average cost of $2 per 1,000 gallons, the EPA estimates that homeowners literally flush $146 of water down the drains each year.

But toilets also waste money by overfilling with water; even low-flush varieties waste 32 ounces per flush.  Because of overfills, an average household of 4 people with 2 toilets squanders an additional 6,575 gallons of water in a calendar year, or $13.15.

Enter the $15 HydroClean toilet valve.

Built by a plumber, the HydroClean product prevents toilet overfills, detects leaks, and cleans the toilet tank for you.  It installs in 5 minutes and the Web site says no special skills are needed.

Within the next 5 years, 36 states expect to suffer water shortage.  Using HydroClean, you can help conserve water and conserve dollars.

HydroClean is available at retail stores and online.

Source
Drinking Water Costs and Federal Funding
EPA.gov, June 2004

Average Sales Price, Average Days on Market and Total Active Listings

Click below for more detailed charts …

Continue Reading »

Average Sales Price, Average Days on Market and Total Active Listings

Click below for more detailed charts …

Continue Reading »

Average Sales Price, Average Days on Market and Total Active Listings

Click below for more detailed charts …

Continue Reading »

Conforming mortgage guidelines are the Home Loan Rule Book, delineating between applicants that approved for a mortgage and those that do not.

Effective today, the rule book just got a little bit tougher.

According to Fannie Mae, homeowners converting their primary residence into a second home or investment property will be subject to additional underwriting scrutiny. Fannie Mae is leery of lending to people that may be over-extended.

The complete underwriting update is available at the Fannie Mae Web site but some of the more important points are summarized below, divided into Second Home and Investment Property.

Second Home Guideline Changes

• Without 30 percent equity in the second home, mortgage applicants must have 6 months worth of PITI (what is PITI anyway?) reserves for both properties in their bank accounts.
• With 30 percent equity, the PITI reserve can be reduced to 2 months.

Previously, there was no minimum reserve requirement.

Investment Property Guideline Changes

• With 30 percent equity in an investment property, 75% of the monthly rental income can be applied toward the applicant’s monthly household income.
• Without 30 percent equity, rental income may not be applied to the applicant’s monthly household income and 6 months PITI is required for both properties.

Previously, 75% of the rental income was allowable regardless of equity, and minimum reserve requirements were 2 months.

Even though just a small percentage of Americans own second homes or investment properties, the conforming mortgage guideline changes impacts homeowners everywhere.

This is because more restrictive guidlines lead to two separate, but concurrent, outcomes:

1. The demand for homes reduces because fewer buyers qualify for mortgages
2. The supply of homes increases because fewer sellers can refinance into more affordable home loan

Less demand and more supply places downward pressure on home prices.

Now, remember that mortgage guidelines continuously evolve and what’s accurate as August 1, 2008, may not be accurate six months down the road. In other words, confirm what you’re reading about mortgages online with your loan officer before making any real estate-related decisions.